Covid Freedom Index

Ranking each country by how restrictive they became during 2020-2022

One of the questions I frequently find myself asking is this: If I wasn't in the US, where would I go? What would my backup country be? Witnessing government responses to covid has made me rethink my answer to this question, and that's what I'll be exploring with data and maps here.

Finance == Access to Options == Freedom

As someone interested in finance, I'm invariably interested in freedom and what opportunities increasing my wealth can unlock me. One of the golden tickets of ultra high wealth individuals is their ability to maintain multiple passports; their sovereignty is no longer restricted to a single government. If they don't like how things are being run they can simply vote with their feet and leave.

Among the many qualities that contribute to the attractiveness of a nation is their ability to handle a crisis. There are many other factors, and the definition of crisis is much bigger than the scope of covid response, but this will be my focus for today as I believe it is very telling.

Here is what I set out to answer in this article:

• What countries did a good job in NOT oppressing their people during the pandemic?

• Which countries gave people data and the option to choose for themselves what to do? 

• Which countries FORCED their people into submission "for their own good"?

Many countries that seemed like good alternatives even a few years ago enacted irresponsibly oppressive and nonsensically stringent lockdowns and government policies.

I have no desire to live in an authoritarian hellhole that is going to tell me when I can and can't leave my house, where I can and can't go, force medical procedures upon me, force me to cover my face, force me to go to camps to "quarantine" myself, and arrest me "for my own safety" if I wanted to keep my business open without it being declared essential by royal decree. I want to be treated like a god damn adult capable of weighing and taking risks. If I want to camping in the woods, it is my goddamn right to get lost and get eaten by bears. If I want to go outside and risk catching a virus with a 99.999% survival rate for my demographic, that is my goddamn right too. 

Towards Data Science

My analysis dives into the Oxford dataset, which consists of daily data on various government policies across almost 200 countries.

Methodology

Google spreadsheet with the data: click here.

For each metric of interest,

• I summed up the number of days where a policy was in effect from Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2022.

• Some countries only have data for everyone, others are split V/NV. In my calculations I take whichever is worse.

• International restrictions were looked at from a non-citizen perspective.

• See the codebook: https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md

Important note on the data: when looking at national data, often there are discrepancies between regions. This dataset uses the *strictest* measure in any region within a country when reporting data. So if schools are closed in California but open in Texas on particular day, the US will be represented as having schools closed that day. Further, countries with a lot regional-independence might enact these policies at differing times, so if schools are closed fro Jan-June in one state and May-Sept in another, the data will show closures from Jan-Sept. 

Ranking Each Country by Key Authoritarian Metrics

1. Stay-at-Home Restrictions: Required except essentials or with few exceptions

2. Restrictions on Internal Movement: Inter-city/region restrictions in place

3. International Travel Controls (Quarantine): Quarantine for some or all arrivals (missing some data)

4. International Travel Controls (Travel Bans): Travel bans from some or all regions, including total border closure (missing some data)

5. Restrictions on Large Gatherings: 1000 people or fewer

6. Restrictions on Small Gatherings: 10 people or fewer

7. Workplace Closures: Required closing for some or all-but-essential workplaces

8. Face Covering Requirements: Face masks required in all public spaces or at all times

9. Contact Tracing: Comprehensive contact tracing for all cases

10. School Closures: Required at some or all levels

11. Public Transport Closures: Required closing for most or all citizens

Again, Google spreadsheet with the data: click here.

1. Stay-at-Home Restrictions

Will they place me under house arrest?

• Column names: C6E_Stay at home requirements, C6NV_Stay at home requirements

• Codes

  • 2 - required, exceptions for 'essential' trips

  • 3 - required, minimal exceptions (E.g. once a week, one person at a time)

Most stringent

India       995
Myanmar     992
Honduras    924
Tonga       910
Zimbabwe    892
China       857
Eritrea     796
Jamaica     723
Italy       717
Rwanda      708

Least Stringent

Ukraine          0
Costa Rica       0
Cote d'Ivoire    0
Greenland        0
Benin            0
Mali             0
Norway           0
Cameroon         0
Finland          0
Andorra          0

You notice for this metric and others that there are some oddities. Sure, Ukraine didn’t have stay at home orders, but they’re also in a war. I’m not rushing to Cote d’Ivoire anytime soon, either.

2. Restrictions on Internal Movement

Will I be able to travel to other cities/regions?

• Column names: C7E_Restrictions on internal movement, C7NV_Restrictions on internal movement

• Codes

  • 2 - internal movement restrictions in place

Most stringent

Brazil          1020
Guinea          1010
Iran            1003
Turkmenistan     922
Chile            920
China            892
India            873
Canada           822
Australia        787
Azerbaijan       726

Least Stringent

Netherlands       0
Malawi            0
Guam              0
Monaco            0
Brunei            0
Gambia            0
Bahrain           0
Andorra           0
Faeroe Islands    0
Burundi           0

3. International Travel Controls (Quarantine)

Will they put me in “camps” if I have travel?

• Column names: C8E_International travel controls, C8NV_International travel controls, C8EV_International travel controls

• Codes

  • 2 - quarantine arrivals from some or all regions

  • 3 - ban arrivals from some regions

  • 4 - ban on all regions or total border closure

• Notes

  • There is some missing data!

  • C8 has a special "Vaccinated or Everyone" (EV) code and notes, "that this will not reflect if a country has quarantine requirements for non-vaccinated arrivals (or border closures to non-vaccinated travelers). For this information, users should refer to our differentiated with notes file."

Most stringent

Nigeria                     844
Niger                       801
Barbados                    786
South Sudan                 718
Cambodia                    706
Central African Republic    700
Estonia                     662
Slovak Republic             659
Togo                        650
Sri Lanka                   648

Least stringent: Not shown due to missing data!

4. International Travel Controls (Travel Bans)

Will I be able to enter/leave the country if I wasn't a citizen?

• Column names: C8E_International travel controls, C8NV_International travel controls, C8EV_International travel controls

• Codes

  • 3 - ban arrivals from some regions

  • 4 - ban on all regions or total border closure

• Notes

  • C8 has a special "Vaccinated or Everyone" (EV) code and notes, "that this will not reflect if a country has quarantine requirements for non-vaccinated arrivals (or border closures to non-vaccinated travelers). For this information, users should refer to our differentiated with notes file."

Most stringent

Solomon Islands    1047
United States      1035
Tonga              1020
Fiji               1020
Turkmenistan       1019
Guam                954
New Zealand         953
Hong Kong           930
Canada              927
Netherlands         918

Least stringent: beware, possibly missing data!

Barbados             0
Nicaragua            0
Andorra             33
Zambia              36
Serbia              67
Tanzania            71
Grenada             87
San Marino          98
Slovak Republic     99
Faeroe Islands     104

5. Restrictions on Large Gatherings

• Column names: C4E_Restrictions on gatherings,C4NV_Restrictions on gatherings

• Codes

  • 1 - restrictions on very large gatherings (the limit is above 1000 people

  • 2 - restrictions on gatherings between 101-1000 people

  • 3 - restrictions on gatherings between 11-100 people

  • 4 - restrictions on gatherings of 10 people or less

Most stringent

China                           1068
Bosnia and Herzegovina          1027
Austria                         1021
Zimbabwe                        1020
United States Virgin Islands    1016
Eritrea                         1014
Hong Kong                       1005
Ethiopia                         998
Malawi                           983
Guatemala                        980

Least stringent

Yemen                0
Nicaragua            0
Burundi              8
Grenada             87
Japan              116
Solomon Islands    138
Taiwan             171
Afghanistan        175
Tanzania           184
Vanuatu            202

6. Restrictions on Small Gatherings

• Column names: C4E_Restrictions on gatherings,C4NV_Restrictions on gatherings

• Codes

  • 4 - restrictions on gatherings of 10 people or less

Most stringent

China              1011
Tunisia             889
Djibouti            870
Kyrgyz Republic     860
Algeria             799
Libya               797
Hong Kong           795
Iran                765
Singapore           761
Honduras            761

Least stringent

United States Virgin Islands    0
Yemen                           0
Costa Rica                      0
Burkina Faso                    0
Cote d'Ivoire                   0
Mali                            0
Togo                            0
Cameroon                        0
Burundi                         0
Syria                           0

7. Workplace Closures

Will they force my work to be closed (unless they decree it 'essential')?

• Column names: C2E_Workplace closing, C2NV_Workplace closing

• Codes

  • 2 - require closing (or work from home) for some sectors or categories of workers

  • 3 - require closing (or work from home) for all-but-essential workplaces (eg grocery stores, doctors)

Most stringent

China          1024
Philippines    1022
Rwanda         1016
Uganda         1012
Italy          1011
Iraq            982
Iran            974
Fiji            965
Angola          945
Azerbaijan      930

Least stringent

Grenada          0
Nicaragua        0
Tanzania         0
Belarus          0
Niger            0
Mauritania      29
Cameroon        44
Tajikistan      51
Somalia         54
Burkina Faso    54

8. Face Covering Requirements

Will I be forced to wear a mask?

• Column names: H6E_Facial Coverings, H6NV_Facial Coverings

• Codes

  • 3 - Required in all shared/public spaces outside the home with other people present or all situations when social distancing not possible

  • 4 - Required outside the home at all times regardless of location or presence of other people

Most stringent

Morocco                         999
Sierra Leone                    984
Zambia                          983
Liberia                         982
Venezuela                       980
Laos                            979
Chad                            969
Democratic Republic of Congo    968
Ethiopia                        966
Myanmar                         963

Least stringent

Finland           0
Sweden            0
Germany           0
Uruguay           0
Nicaragua         0
Japan             0
Tanzania          0
Greenland         0
Faeroe Islands    0
Yemen             0

9. Contact Tracing

Will they "comprehensively" track me to make me subject to as many of their mandates as possible?

• Column names: H3_Contact tracing

• Codes

  • 2 - comprehensive contact tracing; done for all identified cases

Most stringent

China                           1092
Singapore                       1077
Hong Kong                       1075
Italy                           1066
United States Virgin Islands    1065
Macao                           1061
Sri Lanka                       1060
South Korea                     1055
San Marino                      1039
Bahamas                         1023

Least stringent

Angola                    0
Guatemala                 0
United States             0
Bosnia and Herzegovina    0
France                    0
El Salvador               0
Iran                      0
Solomon Islands           0
Libya                     0
Lesotho                   0

10. School Closures

Will they close the schools?

• Column names: C1E_School closing, C1NV_School closing

• Codes

  • 2 - require closing (only some levels or categories, eg just high school, or just public schools)

  • 3 - require closing all levels

Most stringent

United States    1018
Pakistan          989
China             983
Iran              977
Guatemala         876
Bolivia           852
Austria           850
Azerbaijan        832
Saudi Arabia      826
Canada            807

Least stringent

Tajikistan         0
Burundi            0
Turkmenistan       0
Grenada            0
Belarus           16
Faeroe Islands    65
Greenland         71
Niger             73
Burkina Faso      77
Andorra           77

11. Public Transport Closures

Will I be able to travel around the country?

• Column names: C5E_Close public transport, C5NV_Close public transport

• Codes

  • 2 - require closing (or prohibit most citizens from using it)

Most stringent

Cambodia      599
Azerbaijan    563
China         558
Argentina     557
Morocco       541
India         521
Uganda        516
Rwanda        472
Cuba          461
Fiji          457

Least stringent

Luxembourg        0
Israel            0
Russia            0
Malawi            0
United Kingdom    0
Senegal           0
Czech Republic    0
Sierra Leone      0
Aruba             0
Thailand          0

Thanks for reading!

That was quite a lot of data, and as you can see, not all of it entirely useful. Consider this a reference tool at best, and a fuzzy, not entirely accurate source at worst. There are a lot of countries that might appear to have a good response to Covid, but aren’t very attractive places to be, just as there were formerly-attractive countries that had an awful response to Covid.

To do your own analysis and view the data in spreadsheet format, click here.