One of the questions I frequently find myself asking is this: If I wasn't in the US, where would I go? What would my backup country be? Witnessing government responses to covid has made me rethink my answer to this question, and that's what I'll be exploring with data and maps here.
Finance == Access to Options == Freedom
As someone interested in finance, I'm invariably interested in freedom and what opportunities increasing my wealth can unlock me. One of the golden tickets of ultra high wealth individuals is their ability to maintain multiple passports; their sovereignty is no longer restricted to a single government. If they don't like how things are being run they can simply vote with their feet and leave.
Among the many qualities that contribute to the attractiveness of a nation is their ability to handle a crisis. There are many other factors, and the definition of crisis is much bigger than the scope of covid response, but this will be my focus for today as I believe it is very telling.
Here is what I set out to answer in this article:
What countries did a good job in NOT oppressing their people during the pandemic?
Which countries gave people data and the option to choose for themselves what to do?
Which countries FORCED their people into submission "for their own good"?
Many countries that seemed like good alternatives even a few years ago enacted irresponsibly oppressive and nonsensically stringent lockdowns and government policies.
I have no desire to live in an authoritarian hellhole that is going to tell me when I can and can't leave my house, where I can and can't go, force medical procedures upon me, force me to cover my face, force me to go to camps to "quarantine" myself, and arrest me "for my own safety" if I wanted to keep my business open without it being declared essential by royal decree. I want to be treated like a god damn adult capable of weighing and taking risks. If I want to camping in the woods, it is my goddamn right to get lost and get eaten by bears. If I want to go outside and risk catching a virus with a 99.999% survival rate for my demographic, that is my goddamn right too.
Towards Data Science
My analysis dives into the Oxford dataset, which consists of daily data on various government policies across almost 200 countries.
Methodology
Google spreadsheet with the data: click here.
For each metric of interest,
I summed up the number of days where a policy was in effect from Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2022.
Some countries only have data for everyone, others are split V/NV. In my calculations I take whichever is worse.
International restrictions were looked at from a non-citizen perspective.
See the codebook: https://github.com/OxCGRT/covid-policy-tracker/blob/master/documentation/codebook.md
Important note on the data: when looking at national data, often there are discrepancies between regions. This dataset uses the *strictest* measure in any region within a country when reporting data. So if schools are closed in California but open in Texas on particular day, the US will be represented as having schools closed that day. Further, countries with a lot regional-independence might enact these policies at differing times, so if schools are closed fro Jan-June in one state and May-Sept in another, the data will show closures from Jan-Sept.
Ranking Each Country by Key Authoritarian Metrics
Stay-at-Home Restrictions: Required except essentials or with few exceptions
Restrictions on Internal Movement: Inter-city/region restrictions in place
International Travel Controls (Quarantine): Quarantine for some or all arrivals (missing some data)
International Travel Controls (Travel Bans): Travel bans from some or all regions, including total border closure (missing some data)
Restrictions on Large Gatherings: 1000 people or fewer
Restrictions on Small Gatherings: 10 people or fewer
Workplace Closures: Required closing for some or all-but-essential workplaces
Face Covering Requirements: Face masks required in all public spaces or at all times
Contact Tracing: Comprehensive contact tracing for all cases
School Closures: Required at some or all levels
Public Transport Closures: Required closing for most or all citizens
Again, Google spreadsheet with the data: click here.
1. Stay-at-Home Restrictions
Will they place me under house arrest?
Column names:
C6E_Stay at home requirements
,C6NV_Stay at home requirements
Codes
2 - required, exceptions for 'essential' trips
3 - required, minimal exceptions (E.g. once a week, one person at a time)
Most stringent
India 995
Myanmar 992
Honduras 924
Tonga 910
Zimbabwe 892
China 857
Eritrea 796
Jamaica 723
Italy 717
Rwanda 708
Least Stringent
Ukraine 0
Costa Rica 0
Cote d'Ivoire 0
Greenland 0
Benin 0
Mali 0
Norway 0
Cameroon 0
Finland 0
Andorra 0
You notice for this metric and others that there are some oddities. Sure, Ukraine didn’t have stay at home orders, but they’re also in a war. I’m not rushing to Cote d’Ivoire anytime soon, either.
2. Restrictions on Internal Movement
Will I be able to travel to other cities/regions?
Column names:
C7E_Restrictions on internal movement
,C7NV_Restrictions on internal movement
Codes
2 - internal movement restrictions in place
Most stringent
Brazil 1020
Guinea 1010
Iran 1003
Turkmenistan 922
Chile 920
China 892
India 873
Canada 822
Australia 787
Azerbaijan 726
Least Stringent
Netherlands 0
Malawi 0
Guam 0
Monaco 0
Brunei 0
Gambia 0
Bahrain 0
Andorra 0
Faeroe Islands 0
Burundi 0
3. International Travel Controls (Quarantine)
Will they put me in “camps” if I have travel?
Column names:
C8E_International travel controls
,C8NV_International travel controls, C8EV_International travel controls
Codes
2 - quarantine arrivals from some or all regions
3 - ban arrivals from some regions
4 - ban on all regions or total border closure
Notes
There is some missing data!
C8 has a special "Vaccinated or Everyone" (EV) code and notes, "that this will not reflect if a country has quarantine requirements for non-vaccinated arrivals (or border closures to non-vaccinated travelers). For this information, users should refer to our differentiated with notes file."
Most stringent
Nigeria 844
Niger 801
Barbados 786
South Sudan 718
Cambodia 706
Central African Republic 700
Estonia 662
Slovak Republic 659
Togo 650
Sri Lanka 648
Least stringent: Not shown due to missing data!
4. International Travel Controls (Travel Bans)
Will I be able to enter/leave the country if I wasn't a citizen?
Column names:
C8E_International travel controls
,C8NV_International travel controls, C8EV_International travel controls
Codes
3 - ban arrivals from some regions
4 - ban on all regions or total border closure
Notes
C8 has a special "Vaccinated or Everyone" (EV) code and notes, "that this will not reflect if a country has quarantine requirements for non-vaccinated arrivals (or border closures to non-vaccinated travelers). For this information, users should refer to our differentiated with notes file."
Most stringent
Solomon Islands 1047
United States 1035
Tonga 1020
Fiji 1020
Turkmenistan 1019
Guam 954
New Zealand 953
Hong Kong 930
Canada 927
Netherlands 918
Least stringent: beware, possibly missing data!
Barbados 0
Nicaragua 0
Andorra 33
Zambia 36
Serbia 67
Tanzania 71
Grenada 87
San Marino 98
Slovak Republic 99
Faeroe Islands 104
5. Restrictions on Large Gatherings
Column names:
C4E_Restrictions on gatherings
,C4NV_Restrictions on gatherings
Codes
1 - restrictions on very large gatherings (the limit is above 1000 people
2 - restrictions on gatherings between 101-1000 people
3 - restrictions on gatherings between 11-100 people
4 - restrictions on gatherings of 10 people or less
Most stringent
China 1068
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1027
Austria 1021
Zimbabwe 1020
United States Virgin Islands 1016
Eritrea 1014
Hong Kong 1005
Ethiopia 998
Malawi 983
Guatemala 980
Least stringent
Yemen 0
Nicaragua 0
Burundi 8
Grenada 87
Japan 116
Solomon Islands 138
Taiwan 171
Afghanistan 175
Tanzania 184
Vanuatu 202
6. Restrictions on Small Gatherings
Column names:
C4E_Restrictions on gatherings
,C4NV_Restrictions on gatherings
Codes
4 - restrictions on gatherings of 10 people or less
Most stringent
China 1011
Tunisia 889
Djibouti 870
Kyrgyz Republic 860
Algeria 799
Libya 797
Hong Kong 795
Iran 765
Singapore 761
Honduras 761
Least stringent
United States Virgin Islands 0
Yemen 0
Costa Rica 0
Burkina Faso 0
Cote d'Ivoire 0
Mali 0
Togo 0
Cameroon 0
Burundi 0
Syria 0
7. Workplace Closures
Will they force my work to be closed (unless they decree it 'essential')?
Column names:
C2E_Workplace closing
,C2NV_Workplace closing
Codes
2 - require closing (or work from home) for some sectors or categories of workers
3 - require closing (or work from home) for all-but-essential workplaces (eg grocery stores, doctors)
Most stringent
China 1024
Philippines 1022
Rwanda 1016
Uganda 1012
Italy 1011
Iraq 982
Iran 974
Fiji 965
Angola 945
Azerbaijan 930
Least stringent
Grenada 0
Nicaragua 0
Tanzania 0
Belarus 0
Niger 0
Mauritania 29
Cameroon 44
Tajikistan 51
Somalia 54
Burkina Faso 54
8. Face Covering Requirements
Will I be forced to wear a mask?
Column names:
H6E_Facial Coverings
,H6NV_Facial Coverings
Codes
3 - Required in all shared/public spaces outside the home with other people present or all situations when social distancing not possible
4 - Required outside the home at all times regardless of location or presence of other people
Most stringent
Morocco 999
Sierra Leone 984
Zambia 983
Liberia 982
Venezuela 980
Laos 979
Chad 969
Democratic Republic of Congo 968
Ethiopia 966
Myanmar 963
Least stringent
Finland 0
Sweden 0
Germany 0
Uruguay 0
Nicaragua 0
Japan 0
Tanzania 0
Greenland 0
Faeroe Islands 0
Yemen 0
9. Contact Tracing
Will they "comprehensively" track me to make me subject to as many of their mandates as possible?
Column names:
H3_Contact tracing
Codes
2 - comprehensive contact tracing; done for all identified cases
Most stringent
China 1092
Singapore 1077
Hong Kong 1075
Italy 1066
United States Virgin Islands 1065
Macao 1061
Sri Lanka 1060
South Korea 1055
San Marino 1039
Bahamas 1023
Least stringent
Angola 0
Guatemala 0
United States 0
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0
France 0
El Salvador 0
Iran 0
Solomon Islands 0
Libya 0
Lesotho 0
10. School Closures
Will they close the schools?
Column names:
C1E_School closing
,C1NV_School closing
Codes
2 - require closing (only some levels or categories, eg just high school, or just public schools)
3 - require closing all levels
Most stringent
United States 1018
Pakistan 989
China 983
Iran 977
Guatemala 876
Bolivia 852
Austria 850
Azerbaijan 832
Saudi Arabia 826
Canada 807
Least stringent
Tajikistan 0
Burundi 0
Turkmenistan 0
Grenada 0
Belarus 16
Faeroe Islands 65
Greenland 71
Niger 73
Burkina Faso 77
Andorra 77
11. Public Transport Closures
Will I be able to travel around the country?
Column names:
C5E_Close public transport
,C5NV_Close public transport
Codes
2 - require closing (or prohibit most citizens from using it)
Most stringent
Cambodia 599
Azerbaijan 563
China 558
Argentina 557
Morocco 541
India 521
Uganda 516
Rwanda 472
Cuba 461
Fiji 457
Least stringent
Luxembourg 0
Israel 0
Russia 0
Malawi 0
United Kingdom 0
Senegal 0
Czech Republic 0
Sierra Leone 0
Aruba 0
Thailand 0
Thanks for reading!
That was quite a lot of data, and as you can see, not all of it entirely useful. Consider this a reference tool at best, and a fuzzy, not entirely accurate source at worst. There are a lot of countries that might appear to have a good response to Covid, but aren’t very attractive places to be, just as there were formerly-attractive countries that had an awful response to Covid.
To do your own analysis and view the data in spreadsheet format, click here.